By Rodrigo Scolaro, economist at COSTDRIVERS
It could even be a scene straight out of a Hollywood movie: a gigantic ship, with the capacity to transport more than 20 thousand people. TEUs [a TEU is equivalent to the unit of measurement of a 20-foot container], stuck at one of the transport bottlenecks maritime busiest in the world. This was the plot of an unprecedented story in the world – which stopped the Suez Canal a few days ago – and which had as its protagonist the vessel Ever Given, one of the largest portalsêiners of the world.
However, this is just the latest piece in a complex tangle of issues that have plagued the global supply chain since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. coronavirus. Lack of containers, labor, and pressure from the airline industry, with unoccupied commercial aircraft already being used to transport vaccination supplies – increase the cost impact and the need for efficiency.
Calculating the loss caused by the grounding of the Ever Given It may never be possible to do so in its entirety, but the impact has not been small, considering that at least US$3 billion worth of goods pass through the canal every day. More than that, the event will also, in the coming months, reverberate in gradual changes, but which may design new routes. In China, for example, rail transport services peaked on the Silk Road following the Suez Canal incident – with transport capacity completely full by the end of May.
Crisis in global chains
The problem in global supply chains Supply Chain goes further and, of course, faces the impact caused by COVID-19. The pandemic has brought chaos to the maritime transport sector and, recently, there has been a substantial increase in prices – especially in container transport. The increase is mainly due to the time that ships have been stuck in ports around the world, due to the cost and lack of labor for loading and unloading. The delay in ports, of course, impacts land transport and storage, being passed on to products and commodities.
Other point The main reason for the crisis in maritime transport was the lack of containers – which began, of course, with the pandemic. The lack of available labor at the ports and the decrease in the number of ships in operation were contributing factors in this scenario – aggravated at the end of the year by a change in consumer behavior – leading to an increase in the influx of goods exported from Asia to the United States.
As a result, hundreds of containers were stuck on US soil due to labor restrictions. Today, out of every 10 containers stuck in the US, only four returned to Asia.
Brazilian scenario
In Brazil, the third quarter of 2020 recorded um increase in port movement of 2,1%, when compared to the same period in 2019.
Despite the increase, the increase in prices, delays and changes in itinerary of several ships disrupts the logistics of ports and exporters – which already operate in a differentiated way due to the commercial nature of Brazil – which buys many manufactured products and exports commodities. The latter generally use bulk transportation rather than containers – and companies that stop in the country to unload manufactured goods prefer to return with their containers empty, rather than “half full”, aiming for a greater profit in loading manufactured products to other regions.
EThese factors hinder the export of several sectors, such as meat, and also the production of manufactured goods on national soil that depend on imported products, such as the textile and automobile sectors.
The CNI recently released a report indicating a decrease in the number of maritime operators in the country in recent years, contributing to a scenario of price pressure due to less competition. There is also discussion about the BR do Mar project, which is expected to be voted on at the end of April, and aims to allow the use of foreign vessels for cabotage on domestic routes and, thus, reduce transportation costs in the country with more competition and less need for trucks for long trips between coastal regions. Although it seems like an attractive alternative, there are criticisms of the project.
Around the world, several transportation companies are taking advantage of the moment to increase their profits, considering that this behavior may last until the end of the year. There are factors that may change this forecast, such as the pace of vaccination and economic recovery around the world, increased production capacity for new containers and new logistics outlets for the flow of global production. We can only hope that another one runs aground. of global proportions not take us even further off the path of normality.